International Gold Prices Fluctuate; Gold ETFs Gain Popularity

After experiencing high volatility, international gold prices continue their upward trajectory. On April 15, spot London gold and COMEX gold both saw fluctuating gains. Recently, both benchmarks hit record highs before undergoing a pullback. Amid ongoing price volatility, gold-themed ETFs have attracted substantial net inflows. Wind data shows that on April 14, gold ETFs recorded a single-day net inflow of approximately ¥3.025 billion, with four gold ETFs occupying the top four spots in daily ETF inflows. Since the beginning of the year, gold-themed funds have surged over 20%, with the highest gain reaching 30.19%. Industry experts suggest that while gold prices may experience fluctuations in 2025, the overall trend remains upward.

 

International Gold Prices Remain Volatile at High Levels

 

International gold prices continue to fluctuate at elevated levels. On April 15, spot London gold and COMEX gold both rose amid volatility. By 17:00 that day, spot London gold was trading at 3,228.93 per ounce, up 0.593,228.93 per ounce, up 0.593,244.9 per ounce, a 0.58% increase.

 

Just a day earlier, spot London gold hit a new record high of 3,245.73per ounce.On April 11,COMEX gold also reached an all−time high of3,263per ounce. After breaching historical peaks, prices underwent a correction, but year-to-date gains for both benchmarks still exceed 20%.

 

Over the past week, the gold market rebounded from a short-term adjustment, weathering the impact of Trump's unpredictable tariff policies. The bearish risk of tariffs on gold prices primarily stems from liquidity crunches caused by synchronized declines in overseas assets. Once liquidity pressures eased, the market began pricing in the medium- to long-term economic effects of tariffs.

 

Last week's declines in European and U.S. stock markets were not extreme, and equities recovered somewhat after retaliatory tariffs were postponed, reducing liquidity crunch risks. Additionally, despite fiscal stimulus exceeding expectations and inflation falling short of forecasts, the U.S. saw simultaneous declines in stocks, bonds, and the dollar. Historically, falling U.S. Treasury yields should pressure gold prices by raising the opportunity cost of holding gold. Yet, overseas investors rushed into gold even as yields rose, suggesting a growing loss of confidence in the dollar's stability-a short-term bullish factor for gold.

 

Gold ETFs See Massive Inflows Amid Price Swings

 

As gold prices fluctuated, domestic gold-themed ETFs attracted significant net inflows. Wind data reveals that on April 14, gold ETFs saw a single-day net inflow of around ¥3.025 billion. Leading the pack were HuaAn Gold ETF, Guotai Gold ETF, Bosera Gold ETF, and E Fund Gold ETF, with net inflows of ¥1.01 billion, ¥746 million, ¥688 million, and ¥431 million, respectively, claiming the top four spots for ETF inflows that day. Cumulatively, gold ETFs have drawn ¥40.33 billion in net inflows year-to-date as of April 14.

 

According to the World Gold Council (WGC), physical gold ETF inflows totaled $21 billion (226 tons) in Q1 2025, marking the second-highest quarterly inflow on record.

 

Gold-Themed Funds Average Over 25% YTD Gains

 

Year-to-date performance of gold-themed funds has been strong. Wind data shows that as of April 14, all 53 gold-themed funds (with share classes counted separately) posted gains exceeding 20%, averaging a 25.04% return. Among them, ChinaAMC CSI Shanghai-Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock ETF and Yongying CSI Shanghai-Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock ETF surged over 30%, with YTD returns of 30.19% and 30.09%, respectively.

 

Despite rising returns, some fund managers have repeatedly warned of risks. For instance, on April 15, E Fund cautioned investors about the premium risk of its Gold Theme LOF, noting that while its net asset value (NAV) was ¥1.301 on April 11, its secondary market closing price reached ¥1.657 on April 15. Since April, E Fund has issued eight consecutive warnings about the fund's premium risk.

 

Outlook: Volatility Persists, but Upward Trend Intact

 

With retaliatory tariffs delayed and exemptions granted for some products, the immediate tariff-driven shock may ease. Coupled with receding expectations for Fed rate cuts, short-term gold price volatility is possible. However, amid the reflexive impact of high interest rates and the combined drag of tariffs and layoffs, the U.S. economy is expected to weaken marginally, keeping gold's medium-term outlook favorable.

Despite recent record highs-breaching $3,200-and sustained central bank gold purchases, some institutions argue that gold long positions are not yet overcrowded, suggesting room for further gains. In 2025, gold prices may fluctuate but will likely trend upward. Factors such as rising Fed rate-cut expectations, escalating geopolitical conflicts, and Trump's tariff policies have transformed gold from a safe-haven asset into a core hedge against stagflation. Investors are advised to allocate 20% of their portfolios to gold assets to capitalize on upside potential while hedging risks and improving the Sharpe ratio.

 

For informational purpose only, not intended as investment advice.